Category: Markets
A Rational Approach to Market Volatility
Through the first nine months of the year, it looked like 2018 would be another pleasant year for investors. The S&P 500 climbed more than 7% in the third quarter, pushing the year to date return for the index above 10%. But those gains – and then some – evaporated in the fourth quarter, with…
The Perils of Market Timing
Following a choppy start to 2018, the U.S. stock market climbed 8% in the third quarter. However, most of those gains were given back during the recent sell-off. Even with the pullback, longer term returns have still been impressive: through October 24th, the trailing five-year and ten-year returns for the S&P 500 were 10.9% and…
Notes from the Investment Team
2017 was another banner year for investors. The total return (inclusive of dividends) for the S&P 500 was a gain of 22%. There were not any meaningful hiccups along the way; as shown in the chart below, the index posted positive returns in every single month of 2017. International stocks fared even better, with a…
Keeping Our Eyes on Access to Capital
In 2007, you could count the number of companies with a “AAA” credit rating on two hands. General Electric (GE) was among that select group. But decisions made by management over the preceding 10-15 years eventually led GE to lose that top credit rating in 2009 – and seriously tested the company’s financial stability. Consider,…
Notes from the Investment Team
2017 was another banner year for investors. The total return (inclusive of dividends) for the S&P 500 was a gain of 22%. There were not any meaningful hiccups along the way; as shown in the chart below, the index posted positive returns in every single month of 2017. International stocks fared even better, with a…
How Investing Transformed Over the Century
I recently read a book on the sinking of the Lusitania in 1915. The author thoroughly details the lives of some of the affluent passengers who were aboard the luxury liner’s final voyage. As I was learning about these “high net worth” people who lived one hundred years ago, I kept wondering about how they…
Where We Are in the Cycle
In the fourth-quarter newsletter, we discussed how we think about long-term equity return expectations. The purpose of the article was to explain how fundamental returns (driven by earnings growth) and speculative returns (driven by changes in valuation) collectively impact market prices. While changes in valuation are the overwhelming driver of equity returns in the short…
Have we seen the beginning of the Great Rotation?
Over the past 35 years, interest rates on bonds have been in a gradual decline. The decline in interest rates has gone hand-in-hand with rising bond valuations since bond values move inversely to interest rates. Bond investors have thus enjoyed a long period of rising returns due to market appreciation in addition to the interest…
Expectations for Future Equity Returns
The S&P 500 reported its eighth consecutive year of positive returns in 2016, a feat last achieved in the 1990’s. That winning streak appeared in question in early November, with the S&P 500 up roughly 2% for the year. As the U.S. Presidential election approached, the consensus among market prognosticators was that a win for…
The Reemergence of the Blue Chip Nifty Fifty
“A blue-chip stock is the stock of a large, well-established and financially sound company that has operated for many years. A blue-chip stock typically has a market capitalization in the billions, is generally the market leader or among the top three companies in its sector, and is more often than not a household name. While…